Forget about Vanderbilt. With the perceived weakness of the SEC, 6 teams aren’t going. If Vandy goes, we’re probably not - regardless if we beat them. As of today, both Joe Lunardi and USA Today have us in the First Four Out, as does CBS (although I know you don’t like their guy) and a few other sites. A lot of others have us at least in the 2nd four out. Wins over Auburn and Arky, plus a win in the SEC-T would most likely put us in. And a win in the SEC-T would do more for our chances than whether or not a bubble team we’ve already beaten gets in or not. So I’m not particularly worried about what Vandy does. And obviously our best bet in the SEC-T is to get as good a seed as we can.

We still can get as high as a 5 seed, but a number of things have to happen. Fortunately, several of those things are pretty likely. To start, we have to win out. Likely or not, that’s on us. We should be able to beat Aub at home. We can beat Ark as well, but it’ll be tough. Tough but doable, even without Maten & Harris. Some other things have to happen too. The more likely things are: USC has to beat Ole Miss, Florida has to beat Vanderbilt, and Kentucky has to beat A&M. The less likely things are: Ole Miss has to beat Bama (we have the tie-breaker over Ole Miss, but Bama has it over us), and Bama has to lose on the road to Tennessee. Neither of those is out of the question. And even if all but one or two happen, we still could get a 6 seed.

At any rate, a 5 or 6 seed gives us a MUCH better chance of winning a game (or even two) in the SEC-T. And that’s our best bet.